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Profession JRI–70 / Technology

Will AI replace programmers?

Unusually for a tech role, the outlook here is negative: a projected 6.0% decline for the 92,230 people in this coding role by 2034. Observed use tilts toward automation, about 63% of it, since code generation is among the things models do most fluently today.

The risk spectrum — where Programmer sits
Programmer vs the 83 other jobs
Risk rank70 / 84
Automation timeline5-10 years
Median salary$100,390
Projected growth-6.0% (2024–34)
01 / Your plan

The skills that keep you relevant.

Picked to match what this role actually asks for — refreshed weekly, never by what a platform pays.

What you'll learn
Software architecture & system designCode review & AI pair-programmingDebugging complex systems
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Updated Sep 21, 2026

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02 / Job market

Official outlook: shrinking.

Within the 84 professions
Salary$100,390
$31k$171k
Growth-6.0% (2024–34)
-25.9%33.5%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a -6.0% change in employment for this occupation between 2024 and 2034, from a current base of 92,230 people employed earning a median of $100,390 a year.

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024–34 & OEWS May 2025.

03 / Real salaries

Programmer salaries by city

Median pay from real records (H-1B filings and tech job postings), across the cities with most observations.

Irving$85,530Plano$85,530Austin$83,866Atlanta$90,210Charlotte$93,642Sunnyvale$123,781

Range shows p25–p75; the dot is the median. Sources carry a documented bias — see the full salary page.

See real salaries →

04 / How to enter

How to become a programmer.

Typical preparation

Job Zone Four: Considerable Preparation Needed

Education

Most of these occupations require a four-year bachelor's degree, but some do not.

Experience

A considerable amount of work-related skill, knowledge, or experience is needed for these occupations.

Job training

Employees in these occupations usually need several years of work-related experience, on-the-job training, and/or vocational training.

Getting in is one thing — the day-to-day runs on a specific set of tools and skills:

Foundations
Core skills
Tools

Full skill path with courses →

07 / FAQ

What people ask.

01Will AI replace programmers?
Observed use of automation for this coding role is about 63%, and the projected decline is 6.0% for the 92,230 workers in it. The score stays mid-range because the work shifts toward system design, debugging, and reviewing machine-written code rather than disappearing.
02How soon or how fast could that happen for Programmers?
The evidence points to a 5-10 year window for automation-driven change in this coding role. Observed use already tilts toward automation at about 63%, while the projected decline is 6.0%, so the shift is gradual rather than sudden.
03What skills keep Programmers relevant?
Software architecture and system design, along with code review and AI pair-programming, are marked high demand. Debugging complex systems is medium demand, and these capabilities support reviewing machine-written code.
04How does someone become a Programmer, or what preparation is needed?
Preparation typically starts with a four-year bachelor's degree for most positions. For entering, programming, active listening, and complex problem solving are listed with high demand.
05What related roles could Programmers pivot to?
Software Engineers appear as a related alternative with an exposure score of 30. The work moves toward system design, debugging the non-obvious, and reviewing machine-written code.
06Is Programmer a good career to start in 2026?
Starting in 2026, this medium-risk field has a projected decline of 6.0% and an automation window of 5-10 years. The salary figure is 100390 USD, but the negative outlook makes it a cautious choice.
07What tasks and tools define Programmers' daily work?
Recorded tasks include correcting errors, running trial runs, writing comments in code, and maintaining software packages. Tools used include C#, Microsoft SQL Server, and Apache Kafka.